NewsOnline Nigeriareports that with 715 days to the February 20, 2027, presidential election, political manoeuvring and realignments are already in motion as aspirants and their supporters begin strategizing for the race.
Last month, the National Chairman of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Dr. Abdullahi Ganduje, declared that the North would support President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s re-election and reclaim power in 2031, following the North-South power rotation principle.
Echoing similar sentiments, Minister of State for Defence and former Zamfara State Governor, Dr. Bello Matawalle, affirmed that the North would rally behind Tinubu to ensure the continuity of his developmental projects across the country until 2031.
However, their comments have drawn mixed reactions from Northern leaders, especially as sources indicate that Tinubu is courting South-East and South-South leaders to boost his 2027 re-election prospects.
With the APC ticket likely Tinubu’s to claim unless he opts out, his success will hinge on securing a majority of votes while meeting the constitutional requirement of gaining at least 25% of votes in two-thirds of Nigeria’s 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.
In the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu’s victory came largely from the North-West, North-Central, and South-West. However, he faced stiff opposition in the South-East and South-South and even failed to secure 25% of votes in Abuja.
2023 Presidential Election Results Breakdown
South-West (Tinubu’s Stronghold)
Tinubu: 2,542,979 votes (58.4%)
Atiku: 941,941 votes (21.6%)
Obi: 849,423 votes (9.5%)
Kwankwaso: 16,644 votes (0.38%)
Total Votes: 4,350,987
South-South (Obi’s Dominance)
Obi: 1,210,675 votes (44.1%)
Tinubu: 799,957 votes (29.1%)
Atiku: 717,908 votes (26.1%)
Kwankwaso: 17,167 votes (0.63%)
Total Votes: 2,745,707
South-East (Obi’s Stronghold)
Obi: 1,960,569 votes (89.6%)
Tinubu: 127,605 votes (5.8%)
Atiku: 91,198 votes (4.2%)
Kwankwaso: 8,227 votes (0.38%)
Total Votes: 2,187,599
North-Central (Tinubu’s Victory)
Tinubu: 1,760,993 votes (41.3%)
Obi: 1,415,557 votes (33.2%)
Atiku: 1,025,178 votes (24.1%)
Kwankwaso: 60,056 votes (1.4%)
Total Votes: 4,261,784
North-East (Atiku’s Stronghold)
Atiku: 1,741,846 votes (55.9%)
Tinubu: 933,176 votes (29.9%)
Obi: 315,107 votes (10.1%)
Kwankwaso: 126,343 votes (4.05%)
Total Votes: 3,116,472
North-West (Tinubu’s Highest Vote Zone)
Tinubu: 2,652,235 votes (41%)
Atiku: 2,197,824 votes (33.9%)
Kwankwaso: 1,268,250 votes (19.6%)
Obi: 350,183 votes (5.4%)
Total Votes: 6,468,492
Total Votes in the North
Tinubu: 5,346,404 votes (38.9%)
Atiku: 4,834,767 votes (35.2%)
Obi: 2,080,847 votes (15.2%)
Kwankwaso: 1,454,649 votes (10.6%)
Total Votes: 13,716,667
Total Votes in the South
Obi: 4,020,687 votes (44.5%)
Tinubu: 3,206,969 votes (35.5%)
Atiku: 1,751,047 votes (19.4%)
Kwankwaso: 42,038 votes (0.46%)
Total Votes: 9,020,741
Tinubu’s 2027 Strategy: Wooing the South-East and South-South
To improve his standing in the South-East and South-South, Tinubu is reportedly reaching out to governors and political leaders in these regions.
Sources indicate to Vanguard that apart from implementing key projects in these zones, Tinubu is exploring a political arrangement that would allow opposition governors to retain their seats in exchange for electoral support in 2027.
If successful, this strategy could see Professor Charles Soludo (Anambra, APGA), Dr. Peter Mbah (Enugu, PDP), Pastor Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom, PDP), the PDP government in Bayelsa, and Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta, PDP) retaining their positions, while Tinubu secures the required votes in these states.
Additionally, governors interested in defecting to APC would be welcomed without resistance.
However, not everyone in the APC supports this strategy. The Chairman of United Nigeria Airlines and an APC governorship aspirant in Anambra State, Obiora Okonkwo, argues that securing an APC governor in Anambra through the upcoming election would be more beneficial for Tinubu’s 2027 re-election bid than relying on an opposition governor.
