North vs South: Showdown looms over Tinubu’s tax bills as lawmakers return from recess

After a two-week break, National Assembly members are set to resume duties in Abuja, and the tax bills by President Bola Tinubu appear to be their priority.

The four tax reform bills are before the National Assembly.

However, the discourse over them appears to be divided between the North and the South.

The four bills, the Nigeria Tax Bill 2024, the Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service Establishment Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board Establishment Bill, are currently before both chambers of the National Assembly for passage.

Over the weekend, Rabiu Kwankwaso, the presidential candidate of the New Nigeria People’s Party, NNPP, caused a major stir over the tax bills by describing them as a plot by Lagos State to take over the taxes of Kano, urging lawmakers from Kano to “open their eyes.”

Mr Kwankwaso is the latest northern politician to raise alarm over the bills.

It should be recalled that the Northern Governors’ Forum had instructed their lawmakers to reject the bills.

The contention over the bills is the sharing of the Value Added Tax as proposed by the bills.

The principle of sharing 60 per cent of VAT revenue through the derivation principle is sparking controversy.

Some northern governors argue that the arrangement would favour Lagos State, which hosts many company headquarters.

Taiwo Oyedele, the chairman of the presidential committee, has consistently debunked this claim, stating that the proposal in the bills will benefit northern states more. In one interview, he said the bills would affect Lagos State the most.

However, DAILY POST learnt that many lawmakers remain unconvinced.

On Monday, Mr Oyedele was in the House to further explain the implications of the bills to the lawmakers.

In this report, DAILY POST reviews the regional composition of the Senate and the House of Representatives to determine the strength of the regions.

Although voice votes are often used to decide issues, in the last Assembly, the Senate was forced to decide a contentious part of the Electoral Bill through voting.

The Senate

In the Senate, if all 109 lawmakers are present, the number required to pass the tax bills is 55 votes. However, the quorum of the Senate is 37.

A breakdown of the Senate shows that the North has 57 senators, including one from the FCT, while the South has 51 senators.

North-West: 21 senators

North-East: 18 senators

North-Central: 18 senators

South-West: 18 senators

South-South: 18 senators

South-East: 15 senators

The review shows that the North has more numbers. However, the North is not homogeneous. States like Kogi, Kwara, Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau in the North-Central may vote differently from the core North of the North-East and the North-West.

These five North-Central states have a total of 15 lawmakers in the Senate.

If this is removed from the North, it leaves the North with 43 senators.

The South is equally not homogeneous. DAILY POST learnt that some states in the South, particularly the oil-producing states, may back the bills.

A united southern bloc, plus the North-Central, may give the bills the needed push to scale through the Senate.

Amid this, Senator Ali Ndume has been very vocal on the bills and recently claimed that the bills would be “dead on arrival.”

The question is- does Mr Ndume have enough allies to ensure the bills are defeated?

The House

The House has seen more people speaking up in support of the bills. Last week, Abdulmumin Jibrin, a member of the NNPP from Kano State, said the lawmakers from the North are going to back the bills because it is in the interest of the North.

However, it is unclear if he will still maintain his position now that Mr Kwankwaso, the political leader of the NNPP, has spoken.

Meanwhile, Philip Agbese, the deputy spokesperson of the House, has been very vocal in support of the bills. In a recent statement, he said the lawmakers will support the bills and reject any lobbying by the governors.

“As far as we are concerned in the House of Representatives, nobody can stop us from supporting President Bola Tinubu in rebooting the economy to work for the country.

“We are united across party lines to make sure the country works. This is the disposition of Speaker Tajudeen Abbas.

“Some of these governors are threatening members from their states. They have even gone as far as threatening to deny members a return ticket in 2027 if they support the bills,” he said.

If all 360 members are present, 181 is the number required to pass a bill through voting.

However, the fate of the bills will probably be decided by the loudest voices on the floor. Therefore, it is still a numbers game.

Breakdown of the lawmakers along regional lines:

The North, in total, has the majority in the House with 190 seats.

North-West: 91 seats

North-East: 48 seats

North-Central: 51 seats

The South has a total of 170 seats, broken down as follows:

South-West: 71 seats

South-South: 55 seats

South-East: 44 seats

Just like in the Senate, the entire region may not vote along the same line.

For instance, in the North-Central, many lawmakers often take opposing positions to the core North. If the tally of the North-Central is deducted, the North is left with 139 votes.

The South has 170 votes, 20 short of the North’s votes.