….As currency outside bank hits N4.59 trn
…Credit to govt rises 4%
By Elizabeth Adegbesan
Nigeria’s Money Supply (M²) increased by 3.16 percent month-on-month, MoM, to N114.2 trillion in March 2025 from N110.7 trillion in February 2025
According to the Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, Money and Credit Statistics data the MoM increase in money supply followed positive changes in its components.
Quasi-money,including savings deposits, time deposits, and other near-money assets,rose significantly.
The data showed that Quasi Money grew by 3.8 percent MoM to N75.7 trillion in March from N72.9 trillion in February.
Similarly, Demand Deposits increased by 2.1 percent MoM to N33.9 trillion in March from N33.2 trillion in February.
Currency outside banks increased slightly by 1.7 percent MoM to N4.59 trillion in March from N4.51 trillion in February.
Narrow money ( M1), also grew by 2.3 percent MoM to N38.6 trillion in March from N37.7 trillion in February.
Meanwhile, the data showed that credit to the government fell by 4.4 percent MoM to N25.9 trillion in March from N27.11 trillion in February.
On the other hand, credit to the private sector grew by 0.013 percent MoM to N76.26 trillion in March from N76.25 trillion in February.
This resulted in a 1.22 percent MoM decline in net domestic credit of N102.13 trillion in March from N103.4 trillion in February.
According to the Debt Management Office (DMO) Nigeria’s public debt rose by N2.35 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2024,bringing the total debt stock for the year to N144.67 trillion.
In their Macroeconomic Research update, analysts at CardinalStone Securities Limited projected more debt accretion dor Nigeria in 2025 citing global shocks and domestic vulnerabilities.
“Due to a combination of global shocks and domestic vulnerabilities, we
see scope for more debt accretion in 2025.
“To start with, despite the 90-day pause on most of the U.S. retaliatory tariffs, the outlook for crude oil
prices is still biased to the downside due to the intensified U.S./China trade war and expected crude oil supply glut driven by a rollback of some OPEC+ production cuts.
“For specifics, EIA now expects oil consumption to increase by 0.9mb/d in 2025 and 1.0mb/d in 2026, respectively. “These projections are 0.4mb/d and 0.1mb/d lower than prior forecasts.
“At the supply end, crude inventories are likely to start building up as OPEC+ members unwind
production cuts from May.
“In view of these concerns, EIA forecast mean crude oil prices at $68/bbl for 2025 and $61/bbl in 2026 (vs $81/bbl in 2024 and $63.47/bbl currently).
“Elsewhere, we retain our Nigerian oil production forecast at 1.7mb/d for 2025 as oil assets remain vulnerable to attacks.
“This output expectation, combined with the cautious outlook for prices, suggests that the government’s fiscal deficit may be wider than initially expected.
“We, therefore, expect the government to borrow between N16 trillion and N18 trillion from domestic and international markets in 2025 (vs. the government’s estimate of N13.08 trillion).”
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