By Udeme Akpan, Energy Editor & Obas Esiedesa
The Federal Government’s failure to renew the Crude for Naira agreement between NNPC Limited and Dangote Refinery, along with rising global crude oil prices, is set to push petrol pump prices higher across Nigeria in April and beyond.
The six-month agreement, which expired in March, was initially brokered by the government last year. It allowed the national oil company to supply crude oil to the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery, with payments made in Naira.
Despite initial challenges, the deal gradually reduced petrol prices from over N1,000 per litre to around N820, depending on location. Following the failure of the two companies to renew the agreement, Dangote Refinery had two weeks ago announced that it was halting sale of petrol products to the domestic market in Naira.
The decision has raised concerns that the price of petroleum products, especially premium motor spirit also known as petrol will rise.
As an indication of what is coming, petrol has risen across the country, with new pump prices reaching up to N960 per litre, according to the latest price list, obtained from MRS Oil and Gas by Financial Vanguard.
This was even as private oil depots have increased the price of petrol to N900 per litre from more than N890 per litre, weekend, due to rising prices of crude oil and other factors in the global market.
The adjustments, which became effective from March 28, 2025, indicated higher prices across major cities, with Lagos having the lowest rates and northern states recording the highest.
In Lagos, petrol will sell for N930 per litre, while states in the South West, including Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ekiti, Kwara, and Ondo, will pay N940 per litre.
Also, in the South South and South East regions, including Edo, Abia, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Rivers, Cross River, and Enugu, the product would be sold at N960 per litre.
In Abuja, Kaduna, Benue, Kogi, Niger, Sokoto, Kebbi, and Nasarawa will pay N950 per litre, while Zamfara, Kano, Jos, Bauchi, Taraba, Adamawa, Borno, Katsina, Jigawa, Gombe, and Yobe will pay N960 per litre.
Free Carrier Agreement (FCA) price, which determines how much marketers pay before selling fuel, also differs from one part of the nation to another.
While FCA price stood at N905 per litre, Borno, the FCA prices of Taraba, Adamawa, and Yobe stood at N888 per litre.
Private depots raise prices to N900 per litre
Already, private oil depots have increased the price of petrol to N900 per litre from more than N890 per litre, due to rising prices of crude oil and other factors in the global market.
Checks by Financial Vanguard, weekend, showed that oil marketers with N900 per litre depot prices included Rainoil, Prudent, A.Y.M Shafa and Mainland.
The checks also indicated that the pump prices of petrol would likely be adjusted upwards when the product gets to the filling stations.
The price of crude oil, a major feedstock involved in refining rose $75 per barrel from $70 per barrel, thus causing refineries, including the $650,000 barrels per day Dangote refinery to incur additional costs.
Checks by Financial Vanguard indicated that in line with its pronouncement, the $20 billion Dangote refinery did not load trucks based on the nation’s Naira for Crude programme, weekend.
The checks showed that lifting through ships that charged dollar rates were ongoing to enable it cover costs, especially as a bulk of its crude oil was still sourced in dollars from the international market.
Petrol price likely to increase further — Marketers
Petroleum products marketers have cautioned that pump prices would likely increase in the coming days unless the Federal Government resolves the dispute between NNPC Limited and Dangote Refinery over the crude for Naira deal.
Speaking to Vanguard on the impact of Dangote’s decision, the Public Relations Officer, Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, Chinedu Ukadike said pump price would likely go up due to the cost of sourcing foreign exchange to pay for the product.
He pointed out that marketers may also resort to selling their petroleum products in dollars as the currency has now become the means of exchange in Nigeria.
“The pressure on the dollar will increase because it has become the means of exchange. Marketers will begin to sell petrol at filling stations in dollars. And this will have a negative impact on the prices of petroleum products across the country.
“We don’t want to cause panic in the energy industry but what we are seeing now is not encouraging. Any increase in cost will be passed on to consumers eventually”, he added.
He said the marketers were informed that the crude for Naira deal ended March 1, 2025, contrary to claims made by government officials.
Price hike impacts operations — Platform
Commenting on the development, petroleumpriceng.com stated: “The development has impacted the operations of oil marketers, including MRS., Ardova. They had to source their ship supply in dollars, that would culminate in increasing the pump prices of petrol in Lagos and other parts of the nation.
“Already, private depots have raised their prices to 900/L, independent retail outlets are selling between 930-950/L from below N900 per litre. The inability of the federal government to resolve all issues that hinder the execution of Naira-crude policy will keep the petrol price rising.”
Landing cost hits N885 per litre — MEMAN
Similarly, the Major Energies Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) said that the landing cost of imported petrol has increased by N88 per litre in one week.
In its daily energy bulletin on Wednesday, March 26, 2025, MEMAN said the increase was from N797 per litre last week to N885 per litre this week.
MEMAN, stated: “As the market stabilises, challenges will arise, and resistance from those accustomed to price control is inevitable. But with robust regulation, industry collaboration, and public transparency, Nigeria can fully realise the benefits of this transformation.’’
It added that a well-functioning, deregulated market will attract more investment, improve efficiency, and create a more competitive landscape that benefits both businesses and consumers.
Expect rise in fares, goods, others —PETROAN
In a telephone interview with Financial Vanguard, weekend, the President of Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, said the increase in petrol prices would culminate in higher transport fares and rising prices of goods and services.
He said the plights of many marketers struggling to meet foreign exchange rates and distribution expenses, affecting fuel availability in some areas, would worsen.
Gillis-Harry said: “The market situation has started to affect operations in the sector. Some have the resources to buy in dollars but others do not. This means that it could affect the provision of adequate products to the domestic market on a sustainable basis.
“There is no doubt that the upward adjustment of petrol prices would impact on transport fares, food, clothing and other basic necessities. We need to be careful because petrol is not like other commodities. It is an important source of energy and relevant to all sectors of the economy.
“Ordinarily, petrol should be made available on a sustainable basis in all parts of the nation. This means that refiners should refine adequate petrol. Depot owners should have the capacity to keep huge stocks. Marketers should have the retail outlets to distribute it and other products.
“PETROAN members have more than 7,000 retail outlets. We would like to have a more stable environment. Pushing up prices is not the best at this time. Some of our members have started buying products in dollars. Everyone does not have dollars to buy.
“It is a work in progress that should be carefully watched and monitored. The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, NMDPRA, should be up and doing as effective regulation is required. There should be adequate stakeholders’ engagements to ensure that no single party dominates the space while others suffer.
“We are currently discussing with some foreign companies to bring in petrol at a more favourable terms for our members without necessarily paying in dollars. We can achieve a lot if we work together.”
Instability to worsen inflation, welfare, poverty — CPPE
Similarly, the Managing Director/CEO, Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, CPPE, Dr. Muda Yusuf, said: “First, I believe that the new pressure on global crude price is obviously a key factor in the price of petrol and other petroleum products. There is a strong correlation between crude oil and the prices of petroleum products. It is a major factor playing out here.
“Second, the government’s Naira for Crude arrangement which protected the sector has not been sustainable. The arrangement, targeted at enhancing the operations of domestic refineries, has not been working properly. We are going back to benchmark domestic prices with global rates.
“Third, there is also the foreign exchange factor. The exchange rate has been stable for about eight months. But there are concerns about speculated pressure on our reserves.
“These are the critical factors influencing the current dynamics. They could fuel inflation because of the important role of petrol and other petroleum products. In fact, once energy prices start to go up, the costs of production, distribution and others also rise.
“But our immediate concern is its impact on inflation. It has implications for welfare, poverty and profitability of investments. It also has an impact on investors’ confidence in the nation, meaning that the macro-economic stability is at risk.
“We shall see how it goes. If Russia brings in products into the international market with supplies, it can assist to bring down energy prices. If there is a better understanding between the United States and Iran and if there is a better understanding between Russia and Ukraine, then things would be better. They had optimism towards the eventual end of the Ukraine war. We are not seeing the end to the Russia – Ukraine conflict that President Donald Trump promised, which should impact on global trade and businesses with Nigeria and others.”
He added: “Also, before now, many of us celebrated that things had started to get better and prices were coming down. But we are seeing a reversal at this time. We hope the government can adopt measures to achieve moderation.”
FG should revive Naira for Crude programme — IPMAN
On his part, the National Public Relations Officer of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, IPMAN, Okanlawan Olanrewaju, in another interview with Financial Vanguard, called for the strengthening and repositioning of the Naira for Crude programme.
He said: “The Naira for Crude programme started well and was very useful in stabilizing the sector because oil marketers were able to buy products directly from the refineries.
“The programme should be revived. If the programme is not revived, the current instability would encourage massive importation of petrol and other petroleum products. The depot owners would start to play active roles as in the past. Many middlemen should be expected while hoarding would likely be experienced.”
He called on operators, especially the International Oil Companies, IoCs, to invest in domestic refineries, adding “We need more investors to invest in refineries in order to increase our domestic capacity. If we refine more, it would impact the sector and Nigeria’s economy despite our challenges.”
Consumers react
Speaking to Financial Vanguard, at an AYM Sharfa filling station in Karu, an Abuja suburb, Marcus Ojie, who identified himself as a Bolt driver, said a rise in pump would increase the fare paid by clients.
According to him, “We have seen gradual increase since last week but it is still below N1,000 a litre. Last week it was N930, today it is N946 a litre which is not good for both the drivers and the passengers. Any increase in cost will be transferred to the passengers because that is the way it is.
“I want to appeal to the government to renew the agreement with Dangote Refinery because it is good for the country. By now we were expecting the price in Abuja to fall below N900 a litre in all the petrol stations, not just at MRS or Adova stations”, he added.
Also speaking at the retail outlet, John Yangabe, a civil servant, expressed dissatisfaction over government failure to resolve the dispute, pointing out that the operation of local refineries is a big boost for the Nigerian economy.
“The coming of Dangote Refinery removed shame from the country because it is disgraceful for an oil producing country like Nigeria, the giant of Africa, to be importing petrol from countries which do not even have crude oil in their ground.
“When deregulation started I stopped using car to go to work because of the high cost of petrol. Now I drive only on weekends and I was hoping that the price will go below N700 per litre so that I can start going to work in the comfort of my car. The recent reversal that has seen price begining to go up is not encouraging. The government must do something because price of petrol affects the cost of transportation and prices of goods and services”, he stated.
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