Next pope: Why Nigeria’s Cardinal Okpaleke isn’t a front runner

As the world continues to mourn the passing of Pope Francis, a thought-provoking question arises: could the next pope be of African descent?

With discussions intensifying around potential successors, much attention has turned to cardinals from Ghana and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Yet, the conspicuous absence of a Nigerian candidate in the spotlight raises eyebrows. Why is Nigeria, a nation with a vibrant Catholic community and one of the continent’s largest Catholic populations, seemingly sidelined at such a pivotal moment for the Church?

Context of Change

Pope Francis, who passed away on 21 April 2025, leaves behind a legacy both profound and far-reaching.

His unwavering commitment to inclusiveness, social justice, and the uplift of marginalised communities resonated deeply with Catholics across the globe.

In Africa, where the Church continues to flourish, his message found particularly fertile ground.

With an estimated 19 million Catholics, Nigeria is home to one of the continent’s largest Catholic populations.

Yet, as the College of Cardinals prepares for the upcoming conclave, only one Nigerian cardinal, Peter Ebere Okpaleke, is eligible to vote for the next pope.

The question then arises: why is he not among the frontrunners?

The election of a new pope is a deeply complex process, shaped by a myriad of factors, including a cardinal’s experience, theological stance, and capacity to unify the global Church. It is not merely about representation; it is about being seen as a viable candidate. Nigeria’s absence from serious consideration is all the more striking given its rich ecclesiastical history and influence.

Candidates of African Descent

Cardinal Peter Okpaleke, appointed Bishop of Ekwulobia in 2022, has faced notable challenges throughout his clerical journey. His rejection by the Ahiara Diocese in 2012 due to ethnic tensions cast a long shadow over his career.

This incident not only underscores the complexities of Nigerian society but also raises concerns about his broader acceptability and leadership potential within the Church.

By contrast, Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who has held senior roles in the Vatican for over two decades, and Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu of the DRC, a prominent voice in African Catholicism, have emerged as strong contenders.

Their extensive experience, international visibility, and well-established networks make them familiar names within global Church circles. Okpaleke, by comparison, remains relatively unknown outside the Southeast of Nigeria. A Catholic priest, speaking anonymously due to the sensitive nature of the topic, reflected on the leadership qualities required at this crucial juncture: “The Church is looking for stability and leadership. Okpaleke’s journey is commendable, but he needs more time to build a global profile.”

This view is shared by many within the Church, highlighting the considerable challenges Okpaleke faces in gaining international recognition among his peers.

However, papal selection is not solely about individual merit. It also reflects broader institutional dynamics. The Catholic Church finds itself at a transformative crossroads, grappling with secularisation, internal reform, and calls for greater social justice.

In this context, a candidate’s ability to navigate these complexities is vital. Cardinals Turkson and Ambongo have both demonstrated the aptitude to do just that, enhancing their appeal.

A Turning Point

As the conclave draws near, attention sharpens on the need for experience, unity, and the capacity to lead a diverse and evolving Church.

Archbishop Michael Crotty, the Papal Nuncio to Nigeria, told Our Correspondent, “The College of Cardinals will take stock of where the Church is now… and seek someone who can be the centre of unity. Nigeria will have its voice in that process.”

Yet the absence of a Nigerian candidate among the top contenders is difficult to ignore.

This absence stirs a deeper debate about identity, inclusion, and global representation in the Church. Fr Michael Nsikak Umoh, National Director of Social Communications at the Catholic Secretariat of Nigeria, weighed in: “There is nothing like African Pope, or American Pope, or Italian Pope. We must avoid these media categories, which are, at best, divisive, uncatholic, and bereft of Catholic spirituality and theology.”

His remarks highlights the need for a leader who transcends national and ethnic lines, prioritising the Church’s universal mission. Still, the question lingers: can a Nigerian candidate one day emerge to stand among the elect?

Representation

While Africa’s Catholic population continues to grow, its representation at the highest levels of Church leadership remains limited. This disparity reflects not only ecclesiastical dynamics but also historical patterns shaped by colonialism and global power structures. For many, the push for a more representative papacy is long overdue.

We’re not praying for an African Pope —Archbishop Kaigama

As tributes to Pope Francis pour in, Catholic Archbishop of Abuja, Most Rev. Ignatius Kaigama, offers a message of hopeful realism.

Asked about the possibility of a Black African pope, Kaigama responded: “Yes, it is possible. There are African Cardinals who are eligible. But we are not praying for an African pope, or an American pope, or an Asian pope. We are praying for a good and holy pope.”

This sentiment captures the deep-rooted faith of the Nigerian Catholic community, which remains spiritually connected to the papacy regardless of whether one of their own is elected.

The hope for a pope of African descent is not solely about representation. It is also about the values such a leader might bring to the global Church — values informed by lived experiences of poverty, social inequality, and environmental degradation. Many believe that a pope from Africa would offer a unique perspective that reflects the aspirations of millions.

Meanwhile, conversations continue around Okpaleke’s potential. Though his leadership within a smaller diocese may appear limiting, those close to him see a future full of promise.

“The Holy Spirit works in mysterious ways. I believe in divine providence as a cornerstone of our faith. Leadership can emerge unexpectedly — even from the least likely candidates,” says Sir Sunday Ogenyi, a parishioner in Abuja and Knight of St Mulumba (KSM).

A Call for Unity, Discernment

As the conclave approaches, the narrative in Nigeria is shifting from disappointment to resilience. The focus is returning to unity, discernment, and trust in divine guidance.

Urging against political influence, Fr Umoh cautioned, “Our Church must be spared the Nigerian ‘Emilokan’ political tendencies. It is better to allow the Holy Spirit to guide the election of Peter’s successor than to import confusion.

“Let us leave the burden on the conscience of the cardinal electors. Even if Africa were given the opportunity to choose, we know the challenges that would follow. Let us pray for the Church and entrust the rest to God and to those appointed to oversee the process. Come, Holy Spirit, fill the hearts of your faithful, and kindle in them the fire of your love. Amen.”

This heartfelt plea reflects a broader conviction that the Church’s mission transcends geography, ethnicity, and political aspiration.

While the world watches, the cardinals prepare to gather in the Sistine Chapel, sequestered in prayer and discernment. As they seek a successor to Pope Francis —one who embodies compassion, justice, and inclusivity — the question remains: is Nigeria’s time yet to come?

The Future of the Papacy

Will the next pope be African? Only time will tell. But one thing is certain: the values Pope Francis championed — unity, humility, and service — must endure.

The future of the papacy carries the potential for transformative change, rooted in the diverse experiences of a global Church. As the Church faces new and pressing challenges, the need for leadership grounded in mercy, justice, and inclusion has never been greater.

In this time of transition, the voices of the faithful, especially from Nigeria, will rise in prayer, seeking wisdom and clarity. Whether or not a Nigerian cardinal is chosen, the Church’s mission continues: to serve, to unify, and to walk in faith.

As the conclave begins, hope endures. The journey of faith carries on. And the vision of a more inclusive and representative Church lives on in the hearts of believers around the world.