The President of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, is a civilian. The “governor” of Rivers State, Vice-Admiral (rtd) Ibok-Ete Ibas, is a military officer who rules the state as its Sole Administrator. Last week, the Attorney-General of the Federation, AGF, Lateef Fagbemi, said that Tinubu would “not hesitate” to declare a state of emergency in more states, remove more elected governors and install more retired military officers as Sole Administrators. And, of course, the National Assembly would not hesitate to approve such proclamations with a voice vote, as it did on Rivers State, thereby entrenching Sole Administrators across the country. Who says Nigeria is a democracy? Of course, it is not. Far from it!
Indeed, in its annual Democracy Index, the Economist Intelligence Unit, EIU, never refers to Nigeria as a “democracy”; rather, it consistently refers to Nigeria as a “regime”, specifically, a “hybrid regime”. The word “hybrid” means something that is not pure-bred but composed of two different elements. Thus, Nigeria is a hybrid regime because it is a mix of autocracy and democracy. In truth, what Nigeria practises today, under Tinubu, is a diarchy, a government consisting of elements of militocracy and democracy.
The last time Nigeria had a diarchic government was under the regime of General Ibrahim Babangida, Tinubu’s mentor – recall that, recently, Tinubu said Babangida influenced him to enter politics. Under the Babangida regime, General Babangida himself and members of the Armed Forces Ruling Council, AFRC, ruled the country, while civilians ruled the states as governors and assembly members, although Babangida and the AFRC kept watchful eyes on them. Under Tinubu’s diarchy, he and members of the National Assembly (elected civilians) rule the country, while an unelected retired military officer rules Rivers State as the Sole Administrator, albeit taking orders from Tinubu, the magisterial president.
As noted earlier, the AGF, Lateef Fagbemi, has laid down the marker and nailed the Tinubu administration’s colours to the mast. Threateningly, the AGF said: “It is Rivers State’s turn today; it can be anybody’s turn tomorrow.” Now, if Fagbemi is right, and Tinubu is ready to declare a state of emergency in more states, sack more elected governors and state lawmakers and appoint more Sole Administrators, then Nigeria must brace itself for a full diarchy, with Sole Administrators mushrooming across the country! A boon to retired military officers!
Since its independence in 1960, Nigeria has had four Sole Administrators under civil rule. The first was in 1962 when the Tafawa Balewa administration removed the Premier of Western Region, following a political crisis in the region, and appointed Moses Majekodunmi, a medical doctor, as the Sole Administrator. The Balewa government acted under the Emergency Powers Act of 1961, enacted under the 1960 Constitution.
In 2004, President Obasanjo installed General (rtd) Chris Ali as Nigeria’s second Sole Administrator after using an emergency rule to remove Governor Joshua Dariye of Plateau State from office. Obasanjo’s Attorney-General, Akin Olujinmi, claimed the emergency rule was declared under the Emergency Powers Act of 1961. But given that the 1960 Constitution from which the act derived its enabling powers had become defunct, the act itself had no legs to stand on. Chief Rotimi Williams, whose committee drafted the 1979 Constitution, on which the 1999 Constitution is based, said unequivocally: “There is no provision contained in any part of our Constitution which confers such a power on the President.” Several renowned constitutional lawyers and scholars agreed with him. But Obasanjo was undeterred. Two years later, in 2006, he invoked the same 1961 act to remove Governor Ayo Fayose of Ekiti State from office and install Brigadier-General Tunji Olurin as Nigeria’s third Sole Administrator.
Of course, Obasanjo, a former military dictator, has never pretended to be a democrat. Several decades ago, Obasanjo called for a one-party system in Africa. Years later, as a civilian president from 1999 to 2007, he ruled Nigeria with undisguised authoritarianism and even attempted to change the Constitution to run for a third term in office. Today, Obasanjo says “Western Democracy” has failed in Africa, and calls, instead, for “Afro Democracy”!
But here’s the point: Obasanjo’s emergency rule proclamations in 2004 and 2006 were unconstitutional and should never be a precedent that any president, who claims to be a democrat, should follow. President Jonathan wisely avoided it, but Tinubu enthusiastically embraces it. He installed Nigeria’s fourth Sole Administrator and, going by Fagbemi’s threat, he is willing to sack more elected governors and install more Sole Administrators. Why?
Truth is, Tinubu is a civilian in a military toga. For decades, he beguiled Nigerians into believing he was a democrat who fought for democracy and against military rule. He ferociously condemned all previous emergency rule proclamations since 1999. But in power, as governor and now president, Tinubu rules as an autocrat. Read Professor Erica Frantz’s book, Authoritarianism: What Everyone Needs to Know, and you will see Tinubu in every page. Authoritarians surround themselves with sycophants, praise-singers and hero-worshippers; they have a messianic mentality, believing they are a living embodiment of the people; and they operate according to their own rules, not the rule of law. Furthermore, they subscribe to the Machiavellian laws of power, as Robert Greene sets out in his book, The 48 Laws of Power!
Think about it. Within less than two years in powers, Tinubu has had five national monuments named after him. He has totally captured and neutered the National Assembly and coopted the judiciary. On his first day in office, he declared abruptly: “Subsidy is gone”; a few months later, he changed the National Anthem within days; and now he declared a state of emergency, replacing a state’s democratically elected governor and legislature with an unelected Sole Administrator. He did all these with absolutely no regard for consensus-building, for due process, for the rule of law and for constitutionality. What’s more, his attorney-general is threatening fire and brimstone: “Mr President will do it again,” Fagbemi said, adding: “This time with even greater vigour and vitality.” Wow! What a country!
There is a saying that when a government fears the people, there is liberty; but when a people fear their government, there is tyranny. Tinubu wants Nigerians to fear him and his government. Yet, here’s a president who was elected with just 36.6 per cent of the popular vote, thereby rejected by 63.4 per cent of the electorate! He lacks the mandate and the legitimacy to exercise powers without restraints. He’s overreaching himself.
But here’s the danger. If, despite civil rule, Nigeria is run as a diarchy, with unelected former military officers replacing elected governors as Sole Administrators, Nigerians may begin to think there’s no difference between a military regime and a civilian administration. They may become relaxed about militocracy. Nigeria’s democracy is fragile, Tinubu must not kill it off!
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