​Bitcoin Surges Amid Eased Financial Conditions, Analyst Predicts All-Time High in Q2

Bitcoin surged past $86,800 on Wednesday, climbing nearly 5% as investors responded to signals of looser financial conditions from the Federal Reserve and growing expectations of a liquidity-driven rally.

The Fed announced that it would slow the pace of reducing its $6.8 trillion balance sheet, capping the runoff of Treasury securities at $5 billion per month, down from $25 billion. 

The move aims to prevent disruptions in funding markets amid ongoing debt ceiling tensions. 

The central bank also left interest rates unchanged in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, maintaining its projection for two rate cuts later this year despite persistent inflation concerns.

Easier financial conditions appear to be fueling risk appetite. The U.S. dollar has posted its third-largest three-day decline since 2015, while Treasury yields and bond market volatility have fallen sharply. 

Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, said those shifts could set the stage for a significant Bitcoin rally within the next 90 days.

“Historically, these signals have often preceded large Bitcoin moves,” Coutts said.

“Now, with the PBoC ramping up liquidity measures, the market may be underestimating how quickly Bitcoin could surge—potentially hitting new all-time highs before Q2 is out—despite ongoing concerns around Trump tariffs and a possible recession,” he added.

The People’s Bank of China has injected additional liquidity into its financial system in recent weeks, reinforcing a global easing trend that could support risk assets. 

At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s move to slow its quantitative tightening aligns with a broader market narrative that tightening cycles may be nearing an end.

Crypto traders have seized on those developments, sending Bitcoin higher alongside gains in equities and tech stocks.

Ethereum also climbed, rising 3.2% to $2,209, CoinGecko data shows.

Still, uncertainties remain. Inflation, geopolitical risks, and shifts in fiscal policy under President Trump could alter the Fed’s trajectory. 

For now, however, traders are betting that liquidity will remain ample despite earlier observations indicating otherwise.