Bitcoin Rebounds as Markets Price in 'Short-Lived' Iran Conflict

In brief

Iran’s foreign minister met with Russian officials in Moscow as diplomatic backchannels reopened following weekend strikes.
Pav Hundal of Swyftx said elevated volumes reflect deep trader uncertainty, calling the initial sell-off part of crypto’s “volatile DNA.”
Oil and gold both pulled back from intraday highs, reinforcing market expectations that broader escalation remains unlikely.

Bitcoin regained a footing late Sunday to trade above $101,000, recovering from earlier weekend losses as investors responded to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites.

The gains came alongside modest moves in gold and a muted reaction across oil and equity futures, signaling traders expect a contained conflict rather than a sustained geopolitical shock.

The U.S. operation, carried out in coordination with Israel, targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan using more than 125 aircraft and bunker-buster munitions.

Iran responded with missile and drone attacks on Israeli cities and threatened to strike U.S. military bases in the Gulf.

Despite the escalation, markets stabilized quickly. Gold briefly hit $3,398 before easing to $3,374, while oil pared an early surge to finish up just 0.5%.

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“The market is still expecting a short-lived war,” The Kobeissi Letter wrote on X, noting that oil remains far below levels historically associated with Strait of Hormuz disruptions.

Crypto markets showed a similar posture. While Bitcoin initially sold off during the height of the weekend headlines, traders returned as risk appetite increased.

“We saw a lot of twitch trading after the U.S. strikes, and volumes remain elevated,” Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Swyftx, told Decrypt.

“The uncertainty in the Middle East, nobody knows what’s coming next, creates the kind of environment traders hate,” he added. “Bitcoin’s drop wasn’t surprising; it’s still an emerging asset class, and volatility is part of its DNA. If tensions ease, we should see confidence and prices begin to recover.”

Iran’s foreign minister flew to Moscow on Sunday for emergency consultations, while President Trump signaled a pause in further U.S. military action.

A final decision on next steps could come within two weeks. In the meantime, European leaders have urged restraint and signaled openness to renewed diplomacy.