Why Bitcoin Is Less Likely to Be Spooked by Trump Trade Tactics: Analysts

The Bitcoin price-moving might of President Donald Trump’s trade tactics appears to be fading.

The president’s threat to slap tariffs on Canadian, Mexican, and Chinese imports dropped Bitcoin’s price to $93,000 a week ago, but his latest policy remarks caused far less chaos.

On his way to watch Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, Trump promised that his administration would unveil 25% levies on aluminum and steel imports from all countries on Monday. How soon the measures could be imposed was still unclear, as of Monday morning New York time.

Despite signaling trade tensions could further escalate after an already tumultuous stretch, U.S. stocks opened higher, as shares of U.S. steel manufacturers jumped. Bitcoin’s price dipped as low as $94,700 on Sunday night, but it then climbed to $97,700 by Monday’s opening bell.

With broader markets largely unfazed by Trump’s pregame ultimatum, it appears fears linked to his potential trade moves are fading, Tom Dunleavy, a partner at MV Global, told Decrypt. 

“The market is starting to see through Trump’s tactics,” he said. “If we look at his past administration, a small portion of the initial headline tariffs were actually enacted.”

Over the past couple of weeks, Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool with U.S. trading partners has drawn heightened attention from market participants, whether that’s because of their immediate impact on liquidity conditions or an ability to influence the Federal Reserve.

The U.S. central bank signaled at its December policy meeting that it’s monitoring how potential shifts in trade policy could impact its inflation outlook. If tariffs contribute to inflation, that could encourage Fed policymakers to keep interest rates higher for longer.

At one point, Trump’s administration seemed set on “universal” tariffs that would be applied broadly. On Sunday, however, Trump said that a set of “reciprocal” tariffs would be unveiled later this week, which would only target nations currently imposing levies on American goods.

The distinction is important, Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, told Decrypt. Reciprocal tariffs would be less inflationary, and they would take longer to impose than “universal” ones, he said, calling Trump’s latest remarks a notable shift.

“It is a step away from ‘Bad Trump,’ and markets are tentatively acknowledging that,” he said.

When Trump’s trade tactics rattled markets a week ago, analysts pointed to other potential pitfalls that could arise. Trump has in recent months floated tariffs on European Union members or BRICS nations that are trying to abandon the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance.

Though Trump’s administration moved forward with 10% levies on Chinese products, Mexico and Canada were able to strike deals avoiding sweeping trade disruptions in North America. 

According to Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, Trump’s relationship with China warrants watching, but his remarks on steel and aluminum were still a meaningful dud.

“This kind of ‘news failure’ suggests that the narrative is losing traction as a key market driver,” he wrote in a Monday note. “At this stage, I believe the only development with real market-moving potential would be an escalation in U.S.-China tensions.”

Edited by Stacy Elliott.